Barry was doing well when all a candidate had to say was, "Pull out of Iraq." Now, it's much more complicated. They did the poll in the spring. The poll said people want change. My prediction . . . come November, apres le primary-frenzy, people won't want change just for change's sake. They'll want to look a little deeper. And what they'll see in Barry is not what they really want in a President. Or, at least, what they're willing to risk.
Here it is, my presidential prediction from The Chaliceblog:
If you believe in systems theory, you believe that systems resist change. Last spring everyone on both the right and left agreed the mess in Iraq was our biggest problem. There was enough focus on that one issue for enough people to agree that change was less scary than status quo.
Now Iraq has fallen from the headlines. Is there enough focus on our problems for America as a system to overcome its resistance to change? Our problems are many and great--the economy, energy, the environment, Supreme Court Judges, health care, social security/medicare, education, race relations, blah, blah, blah. But in such times of stress, my argument is that people will be even more resistant to change, even more afraid of taking a chance.
What's changed is focus. There's not a laser clear focus on one issue that produces enough fear for the system to overcome its resistance to change. Not among enough of the voters.
Enough voters will be laying there in bed waiting for that Ambien to kick in, worrying that the economy's bad but will raising taxes really fix it? Gas prices are high but will refusing to drill or to build nuclear plants help that? Health care is a mess but is turning more of it over to the government going to make it better or worse? Oh, and did I mention that he's black. And untested.
And it's not just the individuals within the American system who will fear change and vote against it. It's all the special interests and powers that be, corporate and otherwise, who will fight to keep what they've got.
I think it will be McCain because by the time all the attacks and fear mongering is done, the fear of change--the fear of the unknown--is what will actually decide the election.
