Thursday, October 22, 2009

Done Deal in Virginia?

I love watching the Intrade election futures market. At Intrade, people put down real money on upcoming elections as well as such doozies as the amount of snow to fall in NYC and academy award winners.

Supposedly, no candidate who ever hit $75 at Intrade (meaning, the market is predicting a 75% chance of winning) has ever lost an election. Don't know if that's true or not, but I do remember that Senator Webb hit $75 within a day of George Allen's infamous macaca flub.

Right now, McDonnell is trading at $95. Doesn't look good for the Dems in Va.

The New Jersey race is much more interesting with Dem incumbent Corzine at $64.50, Republican Christie at $35, and independent Daggett at $2.50. The Real Clear Politcs polls average has Corzine ahead of Christie by only 0.2% (39 to 39) with Daggett trailing at 15%. New Jersey Republicans had better win by more than the polls suggest bc. they don't have a prayer of winning a recount (ref. the jackass Senator from Minnesota).

The most pathetic thing at Intrade? "Charles Rangel departs as Chairman of the the Ways & Means Committee" by 12/31/09 is only selling for $20. What a crook. And it just doesn't matter.

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