Pour It On Boys

Nothing's Changed

2012-01-13T13:54:00.004-05:00

The Big Boys rule.

"The biggest hypocrites in the world are the United States Congress because they set out this philosophy that too-big-to-fail is something they don't believe in and they want to stop it and then they write a bunch of laws that kill the small banks and help the big banks get bigger." Richard Bove, Rochdale Securities

And then there's this, "Bank of America is two companies. It's everything Countrywide [Financial] and everything that's not Countrywide. Everything that's Countrywide is rotten to the core. Everything that's not Countrywide is doing quite well."

Watch it here.

My Man

2012-01-12T19:34:00.002-05:00

NJ governor speaks out on anti-Semitic attacks.

A Letter from Barry O'B

2012-01-12T14:27:00.001-05:00

This came in the email today. Pathetic if you ask me.

William --

When you become president, one thing that happens overnight is that you and everyone you love get a bunch of new nicknames.

I was already pretty used to this. But "FLOTUS," short for First Lady of the United States, is really something else.

I'm writing because our FLOTUS, Michelle, turns 48 on Tuesday, and I know I'm not her only fan out there.

Will you join me in wishing her a happy birthday?

The decision to become part of this campaign was deeply personal for a lot of people, and Michelle and I are no exception. But we both knew, like anyone else who believes in what we're trying to do here, that this was never going to be easy.

This fall, Michelle and I will have been married 20 years. The next 10 months will be harder than any we've experienced together, and I couldn't do it without her. I know she'd love to hear from you today:

http://my.barackobama.com/For-Michelle

Thanks for your support,

Barack

P.S. -- This weekend, people are getting together to volunteer in their communities in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Find out how you can join in here.

Seafood Ad

2011-09-15T20:35:00.000-04:00

Hilarious.

still here

2011-07-08T09:15:00.000-04:00

I Guess She Was Right

2010-10-08T14:21:00.004-04:00

This gal proclaimed on election day that Obama was going to pay for her gas and cover her mortgage payments. I've said from the beginning that the Powers-That-Be believe that housing is a human right and that before it's all over the Govt.--probably through Fannie and Freddie--will end up letting those who default stay in their homes. Free housing, owned by the Govt. (Who's going to pay to fix the roof or buy a new water heater when you're squatting in a Fannie-owned house?)

The banks are all halting foreclosure proceedings due to legal technicalities but I wonder if there's not some other reason. After all, if you're not making your mortgage payments, eventually someone will be knocking on the door no matter what's in the fine print.

I guess those continuing to make their mortgage payments--especially those who are under water--are just suckers.

Sue on YouTube

2010-10-06T14:19:00.003-04:00

Look at the one minute, 56 second point in this YouTube and you'll see The Missus for a brief second. She was the towel girl.

Forward to your friends. For every click on the video, United Healthcare of PA, which also paid for production of the video, donates a dime to breast cancer research up to $100,000. So they only need a million clicks. (Another evil corporation.)

R.I.P. George Blanda

2010-09-27T22:17:00.004-04:00

Another hero of mine.

"Against the Cleveland Browns, Blanda entered the game with a little more than four minutes to play and the Raiders down by a touchdown. He threw a touchdown pass, kicked the extra point, drove the team into position for the winning field goal and kicked it — that 52-yarder — with three seconds on the clock.

The next Sunday, he beat Denver with a late touchdown pass; the Sunday after that, he beat San Diego with a last-minute field goal. Five straight weeks he saved the game; he was 43 at the time."

The quote, pic, and more details on his great career here.

Corbett ad

2010-09-27T20:49:00.001-04:00

The next governor of the Keystone State.

No Such Thing As a Free Commute

2010-09-18T10:52:00.003-04:00

At least there no longer will be in New Jersy. Toll booth collectors in the Garden State have been allowed to drive toll-free for 50 years now. Governor Christie is putting an end to that.

He's obviously picking a fight here. Trying to piss off every union in the state. It couldn't save much money when you look at the big picture but it certainly is symbolic.

I'm sitting across the river loving NJ politics, knowing that the same sort of political fun is coming to Pa. should we elect Tom Corbett.

Cavuto

2010-09-10T09:58:00.003-04:00

Here's the link to a humorous, yet pointed Cavuto commentary that reflects some intelligent economic thought.

This on a day when Barry O'B is reportedly going to appoint a 41 year old college professor turned campaign adviser to head his economic team--further evidence that this Govt. in the White House "knows nothing". At the very least, I'm confident Mr. Goolsbee knows nothing about what it would take to motivate entrepreneurs to take a risk and hire some folks.

The No Nancy Pledge

2010-09-08T00:26:00.006-04:00

Dems in competitive House districts all over the country are running away from the O'B Administration, running ads bragging about how they are "independent", that they'll "stand up against the powers in Washington". Bragging that they voted against ObamaCare.

Well . . . maybe it's time to prove how "independent" they really are.

I challenge them to take the No Nancy Pledge. It's very simple: "I pledge that I will never vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House of Representatives."

My guess is that many Republicans would sign on within hours. Might be harder to get those Dems to do so.

Look for it on Facebook.

I found the lovely photo here.

They Just Want the Bacon

2010-09-04T11:01:00.003-04:00

In honor of International Bacon Day, which is today. A couple years old but still relevant.

45 days in jail? They oughta put the pony-tailed do-gooder in the clink for 45 days for abuse of power.

Another Hero

2010-07-28T17:05:00.003-04:00

Can't say I'm huge fan of Cramer, but I am of Ford CEO Alan Mulally. This guy is incredible. He's completely turned Ford around after having done the same at Boeing. And without the Govt. bailout money.

Watch this interview if you want to see what's right with this country and it's capitalist system.

Asininity on the Gulf

2010-07-03T17:07:00.003-04:00

This is good. There's a converted oil tanker-turned-oil-skimmer down in the Gulf now that is reportedly capable of filtering 21 million gallons of oil-tainted water a day. The EPA won't let it go to work until they've tested the filtered water. Wouldn't want to put polluted water back into the Gulf. Unless of course, it's less polluted than it was when you pulled it out of the Gulf. Why is there a need to test? It's like denying experimental drugs to the terminally ill.

Pointy-headed bureaucrats and inspectors never cease to amaze. Time is never of the essence. More important is their power and control. They have to be able to "sign off" on everything. And they think through fin-reg they can prevent another financial crisis? And that with ObamaCare they can improve and expand health care at a lower price? Dream on, McDuff.

Here's the article and the pertinent quote:

The ship arrived in the Gulf on Wednesday, but officials have wanted to test its capability as well as have the federal Environmental Protection Agency sign off on the water it will pump back into the gulf. Although the ship cleans most of the oil from seawater, trace amounts of crude remain.

Soccer

2010-06-18T07:54:00.003-04:00

A sport for those who coudn't make the baseball team? You be the judge.

Every time I turn on the World Cup and see the lads cavorting across the pitch, I'm reminded of the kiddies who were only allowed to shag foul balls for the ones who could actually play the game.

Read the whole piece here. And the Photoshopped picture here.

Putin Speaks Out

2010-06-09T07:58:00.005-04:00

In the greatest bit of political hypocrisy since Barry "I-inherited-this-Great-Recession-from-Bush" O'Bama told graduates they should "take responsibility . . .for [their] . . . failures", Vlad Putin treats the world to this little humdinger re. the Gaza blockade incident:

"The loss of peaceful civilians has caused a new exacerbation of the situation [in the Middle East]. . . . We are deeply worried by such a crude violation of the universally recognized norms of international law."

How 'bout this, Vlad? --We'll investigate the Israelis concurrently with an investigation of the Russian invasion of Georgia and annexation of South Ossetia. How many peacful civilians were killed in that little excursion?

Picture found here.

Proud of Myself

2010-06-08T18:36:00.001-04:00

Made the cousins cry when I posted this on FB.

(Have to admit it had the same effect on me.)

D-Day

2010-06-06T23:38:00.008-04:00

The Obama Zombies guy recently commented that 18 year olds in 1944 were off fighting Nazis while 18 year olds today spend their time complaining that their internet speed isn't fast enough. This, of course, was his way of belittling this generation who voted for Barry O'B bc. he was the first politician to send them text messages. And bc. he scored free Dave Matthews tickets for them.

Agree with Mattera or not about today's 18 year olds, his comment about the WWII generation struck a cord here, especially after recently having watched HBO's The Pacific. What these kids did on the sands of Normandy and Guadalcanal and in the battles beyond was simply beyond believable. Where would we be were it not for their sacrifice?

On this anniversary of D-Day, remember.

No More Greased Pole

2010-06-05T17:39:00.003-04:00

The powers that be at the Naval Academy wouldn't let the upper class people grease the obelisk this year. They were afraid the poor wuddle boys-n-girls might get hurt. Awww, isn't that sweet. Read a great comment here and an article in the Post.

Turkey vs. U.S.

2010-06-05T16:47:00.005-04:00

"Turkey's contempt for Israel is also an expression of near total contempt for Washington," writes Mark Steyn in an interesting IBD editorial. Word is that the next "flotilla" to break the Israeli blockade on Gaza will receive an escort by the Turkish navy--an act of war by Turkey.

My question is this. Turkey is a NATO nation. We are obligated to defend NATO members who are attacked militarily. So if the Israelis and Turks get down to shooting at one another over this thing, aren't we obligated by NATO to defend Turkey?

This Turkish turn away from the West complicates the existing Mediterranean mayhem and marks a new era in Middle Eastern politics. The Ivy League brainiacs who now control American foreign policy have tough new Change to deal with.

Sop It Up with Hay

2010-06-05T15:24:00.003-04:00

Here's a video about a cool and most unsophisticated way to sop up some of that oil that's spreading around the Gulf of Mexico. Hay is way cheaper than some of the other suggested methods.

Tragedy

2010-06-03T23:23:00.002-04:00

What an unbelievable nightmare. According to this WSJ article, it was nine minutes from the time methane gas started to hiss to the time they pushed the emergency cut off button. Which by then didn't work.

The ripple effects from this oil spill will be incredible.

This is great

2010-05-11T17:35:00.000-04:00

Gov. Christie for President

2010-04-18T22:58:00.000-04:00

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Damned Unions

2010-02-28T12:25:00.004-05:00

A Philadelphia beer festival has been canceled bc. the bartenders' union will not allow reps from the microbreweries to serve beer samples. Guess we gotta save those jobs.

Read about this asininity here.

Free Gas?

2010-02-24T23:47:00.004-05:00

Check out this graph of UNG, the natural gas ETF. Amazing. How low can it go?

Got the graph from Dave Fry.

Hate It When That Happens

2010-02-24T19:09:00.003-05:00

Shamu tried to eat his trainer. Nothing worse than being "thrashed . . . around pretty good" as the hostess of the "Dining with Shamu event".

Amazing that SeaWorld bought a man-eating orca from the friendly Canadians.

Read about it here. Hope it doesn't show up on YouTube. . . .

Here's where I got the picture.

I Want One

2010-02-24T16:07:00.001-05:00

Put this at the top of my Christmas list.

Another Day Older & Deeper in Debt

2010-02-23T13:43:00.003-05:00

Jose Pinera is given credit for having privatized the Chilean social security system. Chileans put money into accounts that are protected constitutionally from the politicians.

In the U.S., FICA taxes go into a trust fund which is then raided by politicians with pork to pay for. The result is truly scary as you will hear if you listen to the Pinera interview.

There simply is not enough money to pay for the Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drug program commitments that have been made. Eligibility ages will have to be raised and benefits cut. Turmoil will ensue.

Still Paying

2010-02-19T09:54:00.004-05:00

No wonder beer costs so much here: I'm still paying for the Johnstown Flood of 1936.

Johnstown Flood Emergency Tax
One such temporary tax that ended up becoming permanent was the 1936 Johnstown flood tax. Although this tax was set to expire in 1937, it was extended various times until the tax became permanent in 1951. Currently, the tax rate is set at 18%.
The Johnstown flood tax was a 10% temporary emergency tax imposed on alcohol sold throughout Pennsylvania. The tax was meant to cover the costs of cleanup and repairs needed after the 1936 flood in Johnstown, PA that year. Although the tax was meant to expire after all the costs were covered, it was instead raised in 1963 to 15% and in 1968 to 18%. Since the money collected covered the costs of the flood many years ago, now the money goes to the states' general fund for discretionary spending. . . .
Residents of Pennsylvania have long opposed this tax because of its high rate. The tax is 18% in addition to a sales tax of 6%, bringing the cost of alcoholic drinks up significantly. There are people on both sides of the flood tax debate. Advocacy groups who want to limit alcohol consumption are in favor of the high tax rates, but unions who want to protect liquor resellers who oppose it.

My New Hero

2010-02-18T15:43:00.007-05:00

Can you imagine an 11 million dollar deficit within a 26 million dollar budget? Unbelievable, but that's what New Jersey is looking at for fiscal 2011.

Governor Christie did an interview on CNBC this morning and said flat out that he would not raise taxes, he would only cut spending. The highest taxes in the country are the the reason people and capital are fleeing the state and it's time to turn that around. It's about time that a grownup stepped on stage.

Another astonishing tidbit--according to the governor, the great state of NJ has not made its contributions to the state employees' pension fund for ten years. And these poor folks think they're ever going to see their pensions? Good luck with that. How many other state and teacher pension funds are in such deep trouble?

The video is a little long but worth a look. Funniest part is the amazed look on the interviewers' faces when Christie refuses to consider raising taxes.

Saints Win

2010-02-10T17:26:00.003-05:00

Cousin Donald put this up on YouTube--Well worth watching. Sure would have been fun to be on Bourbon Street that night.

Stirring the Pot

2010-02-10T08:11:00.003-05:00

Doug Wilder is one of my heroes. He's a classic pot-stirring, rabble-rousing, trouble-making, threat to The Man.

Read his newest--an attack on Tim Kaine and some advice that won't be well-received in the White House.

I agree with everything he says.

What Race Is Your Sex?

2010-02-08T11:31:00.010-05:00

Dad sent me this one. "What Race is Your Sex" is a scholarly publication by Laurel Schneider, PhD. in a book called Disrupting White Supremacy from Within.

One has to laugh at the Mike Adams response. Tho, laughter might not be the most appropriate response. Somehow I don't think Mr. Adams is really going to attend Meadville-Lombard and become a UU minister . . . but if you read to the end of his piece, he may have hit on the head the reason that Unitarian-Universalism hasn't grown in the 50 years since the U's and the U's merged: it's their emphasis on "social justice". Much of this emphasis comes across to so many of us non-Ivy Leaguers as threatening, as condescending, and as just plain weird.

Of course, it's not meant that way. Fighters for justice are, after all, fighting for justice. They're true believers, and what could be wrong with that? The problem is that many of us take their fight for justice as an implication that we are ipso facto unjust. Lots of us probably don't think we're living unjustly. Of course we're all sinners to some degree, no one's perfect. Many of us take their struggle for justice as an attack against us and the institutions that we really don't have that much of a problem with--marriage, the military, capitalism, the United States.

It's wonderful that this great country is free enough and rich enough to be able to afford to let folks like Professor Schneider make a living writing and teaching this stuff. It's great that there's a market for this. Markets are good, they satisfy needs and create value. Jobs are being created/saved here.

I certainly wouldn't pay for any of this, tho, and I wish our taxpayer dollars were not supporting it, either.

Most importantly, I certainly would be unhappy if, when lying on my death bed, I asked my minister a critical question, she/he responded that my question made him/her feel uncomfortable, and would I mind if she/he replaced my question with a question that he/she thinks is more appropriate for death bed discussion. After all, Professor Schneider let her/him write his/her own test questions in Queer Theory class back in seminary. Shouldn't we be talking about what she/he thinks we should be talking about when I expire---instead of what might be on my mind?

Makin' a list, checkin' it twice

2010-01-31T12:17:00.004-05:00

A new sort of endangered species list? Democrats have published a list of Congresspeople who are in trouble. Known as the Frontline List, three are Virginians.

See it here.

GDP up

2010-01-29T13:59:00.006-05:00

Good news today that the GDP is up nearly six percent.

Here's an interesting graph, borrowed from The Atlantic website, that recommends caution. The explanation:

What's happening here? The short version is this: The economy started to rally dramatically last summer, but the recovery has stalled since September.

Here's One Place You Can Cut, Arnold

2010-01-23T18:28:00.006-05:00

Walking by the Boobtube and caught this image of this stray dog being rescued by a helicopter team in Los Angeles. That's California for ya!

How much do you figure that dog's worth now? You have an hour or so of time for the helicopter. Expense wages for the pilot, the co-pilot, the guy who's dropped into the raging river, the guy in the back of the helo supervising the hoist. Worker's comp to pay for the cut on the guy's hand when Fido bit him. Not in the picture--upon rescue Fido was greeted by what looked like a fire engine and at least two police cruisers whose crews, I suppose, were all being paid union wages. Why wasn't the mayor there for the photo op?

But look at the good side: finally, it's Lassie who gets to be rescued. Everyone involved gets to be on TV. People get to FEEL GOOD. Someone gets to adopt Spike. Fox News gets feel-good filler on a slow news day.

The only problem is that CALIFORNIA IS BANKRUPT. Hey Aaaarnold, if you want to balance the budget, you might start with an executive order that we don't send helicopters to rescue stray dogs. Instead, let's spend the fifty grand on libraries or schools or debt reduction. And he wants the rest of us to bail Cauli-fornia out?

That's the problem with government. No one is held accountable. And now they want to run our health care.

Crackin' up

2010-01-22T07:59:00.001-05:00

I've never watched this show but I love this guy's song.

"lookin' like a fool"

My Chuckle of the Day

2010-01-16T20:29:00.002-05:00

"When I work places everyone knows I don't tolerate corruption." Bill Clinton on Special Report with Bret Bair, 1/16/10

That just cracks me up.

Military Tribunal Footage Released

2010-01-07T08:14:00.004-05:00

Here's some rare, recently declassified footage of a Gitmo military tribunal hearing.

At least a dozen Gitmo prisoners who were released have reappeared, as free as so many jailbirds, in Yemen. One hundred percent of terrorists "convicted" for bombing the USS Cole have either been been released or have busted out of Yemeni prisons.

"Okay then."

Say What?

2010-01-06T17:42:00.001-05:00

Barry O'B needs to take a step back and listen to himself.

"How Cold Is It?"

2010-01-06T11:31:00.002-05:00

It'll be 30 years next month that I pledged Phi Delt. One of the more humorous things we did as pledges was memorize a little list of poems and limericks. Walking across campus, brothers would sneak up behind us and ask, "How cold is it, pledge?" to which we'd have to respond,

It's cold as the rim on a cocktail glass,
Cold as the hair on a polar bear's ass,
Cold as the handle of an out house door,
Cold at the tits on a Norfolk whore.
It's pretty damn cold, sir.

Catchy little ditty that makes me chuckle even today. Worthy of being saved for posterity.

It certainly is cold out there.

The Marshmallow Cut

2009-12-19T11:01:00.011-05:00

I am told that my nieces call a marshmallow that's toasted this way an "Uncle Will marshmallow". I assumed it was because I'm so warm and sweet but suspect it has more to do with my hair style and the increasingly expanding size of my forehead.

There is a bit of a resemblance. . .

Funny

2009-12-15T13:36:00.002-05:00

Freeze or Get Down?

2009-12-09T11:40:00.005-05:00

"Well, which is it, young feller? You want I should freeze or get down on the ground?" A great line from Raising Arizona. The confused bank customer asks this of an inept bank robber who has ordered everyone both to freeze and to get down on the ground.

The same scene will be replayed today at the White House when Barry O'B reportedly will sit down with a couple of too-big-to-fail bank CEOs. On the one hand, they've been told they screwed things up. They were greedy and preditory for making the loans that created the real estate bubble and the resulting meltdown of the financial system. They took too many risks and had to be bailed out at tax payer expense.

Now that they have become more cautious (the only thing in banking worse than not making a loan is making a bad loan), they're being told they're greedy for hoarding cash. They're not loaning money to small businesses to create jobs. This, of course, leads to higher unemployment which leads to such inconvenient outcomes as tea party protests and plummeting presidential popularity polls.

Well, which is it going to be, young feller? You want we should make good, safe loans that have a chance of being repaid or you want we should make risky small business loans that may in the short run create jobs and take the pressure off of you, Mr. President, but will surely add to the risk?

Loaning money to small business loans is tremendously risky. That's why Congress created the Small Business Administration--to make the loans that were too risky for bankers to make. You see, bankers have to make a profit or they go out of business. The SBA has never been profitable because even with government regulation, too many small businesses fail and default on their loans. Without the government backstop, many of those loans would never be made because they're too risky. (Kind of like the subprime loans that never would have been made had not the banks been pressured to do so by government regulators.)

In the end, tho, it just doesn't matter, Mr. Banker CEOs. You're too big to fail. Just make the loans, take the risk. The Government will just bail you out: it's Fannie and Freddie all over again.

A Little Cash

2009-12-04T01:28:00.003-05:00

Don't know why I like this so much other than that, philosophically, it's classic Johnny Cash.

"What's done in the dark will be brought to the light." Don't get above your raisin'.

Crunchberries not a fruit?!?!?

2009-11-24T14:13:00.005-05:00

Very disappointed to learn that Cap'n Crunch Crunchberries are not a fruit. An neither are Fruit Loops. So says a judge in California, the land of fruits and nuts.

Real Estate Doom

2009-11-20T09:48:00.004-05:00

At this point, there is no light at the end of the tunnel--the real estate deflation tunnel. Read about it here.

More homes are in or are entering foreclose than there are homes for sale. Ballooning supply and no demand.

"disingenuity"

2009-11-14T11:00:00.012-05:00

I made that word up. It's being disingenuous with ingenuity. The White House and our Congress are superstars of disingenuity. Two examples.

"The President will not sign a health care bill that is not budget neutral."

Ingenious. Fool people into thinking that insuring 20 to 30 million people will be "budget neutral" so the bill can be rammed through Congress. We'll all feel better bc. so many more people will be covered and it won't cost a thing.

Disingenuous. Take a government class,voters. The President doesn't get to make that decision! Congress does. What has Congress's record been on limiting the cost of entitlement programs? The bill that's out there now requires 500 billion dollars in Medicare cuts in order to achieve budget neutrality. When was the last time Congress cut Medicare? Let's try maybe, never. Do you trust Congress, Pelosi, & Co. to make those cuts in order to keep the President's budget neutrality promise? It will never happen. Barry O'B can sign all the "budget neutral" bills he wants but the resulting behemoth itself will never be budget neutral.

Second example: "I promise, those who want to keep their health insurance will get to keep it."

Ingenious. Fool people into thinking that they can keep their health insurance no matter what the government does. We'll all feel better bc. so many more people will be covered and our insurance won't change.

Disingenuous. The President and Congress don't get to decide what insurance most people get. For most working American families, the employer provides the health insurance options. For most people, the individual doesn't "decide" and certainly the government doesn't decide. (And you know why? Bc. during World War II the government stuck its nose into the private sector by setting controls on salaries. Companies then began providing pension and health care benefits bc. it was illegal to raise salaries.) The point is, despite what Barry O'B and his Congressional cohorts say, no one in the government can guarantee that you will get to keep your insurance because it's your employer who decides what kind of insurance you get. His promise is hollow, conniving, rhetoric.

The question that needs to be asked is, when faced with a government option that is cheaper (and, therefore, will provide a lower quality of care), do you trust your employer to continue offering you what you have now? Or, do you think your employer--in this climate, in this competitive world economy--will say, "tough tootie, take the government option." Either way, it's your employer--that "evil corporation"--and its shareholders who will decide whether you get to keep what you have. Not Barry O'B. What will be better for the shareholders' bottom line--continuing Cadillac plans or shuffling employees off to the government option?

The mystery remains. . . does Barry O'B really believe what he's saying? Someone that bright has got to know that he's making promises he can't keep. In which case he's both disingenuous and politically ingenious.

Or maybe he's just not that bright.

Randolph-Macon 0, Florida 45

2009-11-11T09:26:00.003-05:00

Yes, little Randolph-Macon visited The Swamp and only lost by 45. Of course, the year was 1942 when The Swamp held a mere 22,800 Gator fans.

The Yellow Jackets only played three games that year, losing 45-0 to Florida and 40-0 to William & Mary. They did pound Richmond 6-0. The question is, why were they even playing football a year after Pearl Harbor? Dr. Scanlon explains that, at the time, many Virginia high schools ended at the 11th grade and, therefore, 17 year olds had a year before they were eligible to serve. Even so, hard to imagine there was room on the train for a frivolous football adventure.

Interestingly, as best I could find, the Jackets did not play Hampden-Sydney that year. The Tigers played four games, losing to W&M, UVa, W&L, and Richmond.

I wonder if there are any alumni left who remember that trip to Gainesville. It would be fascinating to hear that story.

Done Deal in Virginia?

2009-10-22T10:45:00.004-04:00

I love watching the Intrade election futures market. At Intrade, people put down real money on upcoming elections as well as such doozies as the amount of snow to fall in NYC and academy award winners.

Supposedly, no candidate who ever hit $75 at Intrade (meaning, the market is predicting a 75% chance of winning) has ever lost an election. Don't know if that's true or not, but I do remember that Senator Webb hit $75 within a day of George Allen's infamous macaca flub.

Right now, McDonnell is trading at $95. Doesn't look good for the Dems in Va.

The New Jersey race is much more interesting with Dem incumbent Corzine at $64.50, Republican Christie at $35, and independent Daggett at $2.50. The Real Clear Politcs polls average has Corzine ahead of Christie by only 0.2% (39 to 39) with Daggett trailing at 15%. New Jersey Republicans had better win by more than the polls suggest bc. they don't have a prayer of winning a recount (ref. the jackass Senator from Minnesota).

The most pathetic thing at Intrade? "Charles Rangel departs as Chairman of the the Ways & Means Committee" by 12/31/09 is only selling for $20. What a crook. And it just doesn't matter.

get out

2009-10-21T10:18:00.003-04:00

It’s time to get out of Afghanistan.

Back in my UU days I wrote a piece on the reasons for going into Iraq for round two. Try as I might, I can’t find that bit in my computer files, but from what I remember there were six or eight reasons for invading Iraq. This is what I can remember:

1. Saddam was a tyrant and a threat to Middle East stability. No one on any moral level could possibly defend the system he had created.

2. The American public was behind it.

3. The terrain in Iran was flat—good for us. We would be able to fight on our terms. We were going to win, militarily, without a doubt.

4. Arabs historically have been pathetic warriors. They quit rather that fight.

5. Iraqis were a relatively well-educated population with a history that had included visions of democratic rule.

6. Iraq had oil. Yes, stability in the oil markets was worth fighting for.

7. Fight them over there and we wouldn’t have to fight them here. Or, at least, it would be less likely that we would fight them here.

I can’t remember if those were exactly the same things I listed in those days before Facebook but it’s pretty close. At any rate, let’s apply this list to Afghanistan today.

The government in Afghanistan is not a tyranny. Surely it’s corrupt when measured by Western standards, but the Taliban has been overthrown.
The American public has turned against involvement in Afghanistan. O’Reilly says 60% are against it but I’m too lazy to fact check that.
The terrain in Afghanistan is anything but flat. We can’t roll in the tanks. The mountainous topography favors those who walk it, who grew up in it--not those (Americans) who are interlopers.
Afghanis are historically tenacious fighters. Ask the British, ask the Soviets. Does no one read a history book? These guys have been at war for decades if not centuries. It’s what they know. They will never quit.
There is little history in Afghanistan of any sort of respect for, desire for, or vision of democratic institutions. It’s a tribal society that rejects central authority. Good citizens put tribal interests above the rule of law. They’re not buying what we’re trying to sell them.
They don’t have oil. They have opium and pistachios. We need neither. Grandma will not freeze in the winter when the opium and pistachio supplies are cut off. Afghanistan is missing the key ingredient of democratic governance—a stable, prosperous, educated middle class. And they won't have that ingredient in this lifetime.
They are not a threat to us. Sure, when we leave, the Taliban will take back over and Al Qaeda will re-establish training camps. That’s what cruise missiles are for. (Do we still have neutron bombs?) And, sure, it will be seen internationally as a defeat for America. That’s why we have aircraft carriers and B-2 bombers. If things get too bad, we can turn Venezuela into a modern-day Granada to re-establish our standing as a superpower.

My Pa spent a Christmas or two of my childhood away from home on a submarine dropping frogmen off on the shores of North Vietnam when he could have been home with his wife and kids. To this day I judge the sacrifice he and his family made with one simple question: for what? It’s clearer to me why it was that Pa missed Christmases in my youth than it is clear to me why we are sending soldiers to die in the mountains of Afghanistan. For what, I ask.

What makes this worse? The Obama government is quite simply incapable of dealing with Afghanistan. They lack the will to succeed. On the stump, O’B called this the just war so that he could be elected. But he was elected by folks who don’t want war. He can’t back down without the demagogues on the right crushing him and he can’t crack down without alienating his base. In the meantime, our soldiers are dying every day as they, their families, and Americans everywhere ask, for what?

We can’t fight this war half-way and expect to succeed. I don't think we even have a vision of success. A request for more troops is not the same as the request by some Ivy League professor for tenure. A tenure request requires months of meetings and “input”. Deliberation. Contemplation. White House politicos sit around holding meetings and deliberating and studying whether or not they think the Karzai government deserves our support—as if war strategy were some sort of trifling academic exercise. All this as American kids are dying. That reality ought not be taken so lightly. What a waste. And for what?

The will is not there to do what it takes to win.

So get out.

If "We Take"

2009-09-18T08:05:00.003-04:00

Dennis "Ooogo Chavez" Kucinich (D-Ohio) says, "we" should "take" all of the insurance industry's profits to pay for ObamaCare. "If we take that money . . .and put it into care we cover everyone." He sounds like he's trading marbles on the play ground.

Who's "we" and who gives them permission to "take", Denny? Questions for another time.

My question for now is who's right on what it is the HMOs make? Dennis K. says they make $800 billion with a "b" a year. IBD says that all together HMOs only make $13 billion. So according to IBD, total gross profit for all the HMOs is the same as the annual gross profit for WalMart, the same as for Johnson & Johnson. Oracle's gross profit is running at an annual rate of $18 billion. If Dennis K. is right, we can just nationalize the HMOs and pay for everyone. If IBD is right, "we" could "take" 100% of HMO profits over ten years and it wouldn't even pay for a fifth of the Baucus plan.

The Baucus plan in the Senate also would tax HMOs $6 bil. a year, just under half of the HMOs' annual profit (using the IBD figure). HMOs would either have to eat about half of their profits (if IBD is right) or pass the $8 billion on to its customers, thus raising rates.

So which is it--$800 billion or $13 billion?

There's not enough money in the world to pay for this.

Ham & Sue

2009-09-17T09:16:00.004-04:00

Wifey, #3 son, and legendary Steelers linebacker Jack Ham, anchor of the Steel Curtain.

At the Penn State game, of course.

So True

2009-09-15T22:14:00.001-04:00

"Good economics is horrible politics and good politics is horrible economics."

Craig Smith
CEO, Swiss America on the Cavuto show today

Teabagger Signs

2009-09-13T13:33:00.003-04:00

Here are my faves from watching some of the Tea Party coverage out of D.C. yesterday--in no particular order. Man, is some of it harsh:

"No Child Left a Dime"
"You Are Not Entitled to What I Earn"
"Obama Been Lyin'"
"The Constitution: The Other Document They Didn't Read"
"The IRS is 96 Years Old--Let It Die"
"Obama is a Dick-tator"
"Bankrupt America, Yes We Can"
"I'm Not Your ATM"
"NOBAMACARE"
"Change We Can't Afford"
"Karl Marx is Not a Founding Father"
"Bury ObamaCare with Kennedy"

My personal favorite. . . .
"Chains We Can Believe In"

There he goes again. . . .

2009-09-10T00:14:00.006-04:00

Which is the BS statement in Barry O'B's speech? That part that he wants to work together to come up with a solution? Or that part where he blames the problem on the previous administration and the greedy insurance executives and then calls people who disagree with him liars?

Can't have it both ways, dude. Tho, it's certainly not the first time you've talked out of both sides of your mouth.

Thanks, John.

Taxing Effect

2009-09-08T23:19:00.005-04:00

Start with a dollar, double it every day ($1, $2, $4, $8. . .) and you'll be a millionaire sometime after lunch 20 days later.

Do the same thing, but this time pay a daily 35% income tax and in 20 days you will have a whopping $22,371. That's no typo--$22,371 versus $1,048,576.

What lessons should we learn from that?

#1?--"Yo, Adrianne!"

2009-08-22T19:29:00.002-04:00

The first movie I ever took a girl to see.

Go Philly!

BOOOOOO Santa

2009-08-16T10:16:00.003-04:00

Philadelphia Eagles fans really did boo Santa Claus. Of course, it wasn't the real Santa, but rather a 170 pound draftee who was plucked from the stands when the real Santa failed to show up. "Santa" claims he wasn't drunk, altho, folks who were there testify that he was stumbling.

Hilarious.

No More Viagra Under ObamaCare

2009-08-09T08:11:00.003-04:00

Page 643 of the House bill says no more Viagra under the new health care insurance reform. White House spokesperson Robert Gibbs argues that Viargra use leads to more pregnancies which leads to more children, greater health care costs, and more severe climate change due to the increased carbon footprint that new borns create.

(Kidding, kidding, I'm just trying to get on the White House list of bloggers spreading "fishy" disinformation.)

Break Out the Champagne

2009-08-07T06:13:00.003-04:00

"We're losing jobs at half the rate we were at the beginning of this year," says Barry O'B.

Woohoo!

Guess that's why I'll never be Pres. The remark, made at a campaign rally for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Virgina, was met with great cheers. He was bragging. Bragging when unemployment continues to increase? I won't be Pres. bc. I could never brag about an increase in unemployment. Even if the rate of increase is slowing.

The campaign never ends.

I Love This

2009-07-31T20:25:00.002-04:00

Two of my favorites, Emmylou and Dave Mattehws, paying tribute to The Best. A wonderful version. Haunting.

Surprised to find out Johnny Cash didn't write this.

Trillion: The New Billion

2009-07-24T18:05:00.000-04:00

Classic

2009-06-19T10:27:00.007-04:00

This is classic. In a sickening sad sort of way. At Friday prayers, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, said, "Iran's laws do not allow vote-rigging." Since it's not allowed, I guess it doesn't take place.

Vote rigging is bad [HA!] but stoning women and gays to death is perfectly fine. Savages.

Perhaps an even more revealing quote found in the same Friday prayer sermon: "I will not succumb to illegal innovation." Therein lies the problem. It's all up to the Supreme Leader and he doesn't want change. He certainly can't have any innovation.

This is what happens when you mix politics with religion.

Will the FBI Come Arrest Me. . .

2009-06-16T19:42:00.003-04:00

If I suggest that this tactic might work well if applied to Capitol Hill?

Helicopter load after helicopter load of rat poison. Hell, it worked in Alaska. . . .

Stanley Cup tonight!

2009-06-09T11:20:00.002-04:00

It ends tonight. (They don't fight in the playoffs.)

Too Poor to Divorce?

2009-06-08T13:16:00.005-04:00

This study concludes that fewer Brits are divorcing bc. of the hard economic times. Let's stand it on its head: maybe more Brits are staying married bc. they're having more sex. It's free. Much cheaper than a night out for dinner and the opera in London. . . .

Millionaires Aren't Stupid

2009-05-27T13:05:00.004-04:00

Pick on them and they move out of state. Says the Wall Street Journal:

Maryland couldn't balance its budget last year, so the state tried to close the shortfall by fleecing the wealthy. Politicians in Annapolis created a millionaire tax bracket, raising the top marginal income-tax rate to 6.25%. And because cities such as Baltimore and Bethesda also impose income taxes, the state-local tax rate can go as high as 9.45%. . . .One year later . . . one-third of the millionaires have disappeared from Maryland tax rolls. In 2008 roughly 3,000 million-dollar income tax returns were filed by the end of April. This year there were 2,000. . . . On those missing returns, the government collects 6.25% of nothing. Instead of the state coffers gaining the extra $106 million the politicians predicted, millionaires paid $100 million less in taxes than they did last year -- even at higher rates.

So Maryland is $206 million behind in estimated revenue from the special millionaire tax. Of course, correlation does not mean causation. Some of the 1,000 in that bracket may only have been in that bracket temporarily because of one time capital gains and many probably have dropped out of that bracket due to the economy.

My guess? Many of them are folks who own vacation condos in Florida, which has no state income tax, or second homes on a beach, lake, or golf course in Virginia or the Carolinas--all of which have lower state tax burdens than Maryland. These people just changed residency.

Of course, the Maryland Mistake is compounded by the federal alternative minimum tax. The AMT limits the amount of deductions taxpayers in these high tax brackets can take. Thus in high tax states like Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, folks pay the onerous state taxes and then can't fully deduct them on their federal income tax returns. Double whammy.

Don't be whiney babies, you say--they're rich so they can afford it. Fine. They just won't be affording it in Maryland any more. They'll go to Virginia or Florida or Texas where they can afford it a little easier. So where does that leave Maryland? And . . . where does that leave VA, FLA, and Texas?

North Koreans

2009-05-26T11:20:00.006-04:00

This wins the prize for Best Blog Post Title for this week:

If John Bolton writes a column predicting that I win a hundred million dollars, I’ll split it with him

A week ago, former US Ambassador to the UN Bolton predicted in the NY Times that North Korea was preparing to test another nuke. Personally, I can't put this on Barry O'B bc. the North Koreans are crazy. How do you deal with that?

Who're also crazy are the Lefties who attacked Bolton for his prediction. My guess is that even today they are refusing to eat the crow.

Solution to the Gitmo Problem

2009-05-25T13:05:00.009-04:00

All that rancor between Cheney and Barry O'B last week. It suddenly struck me: let's just re-name it Tuantanamo? Titmo.

It worked with Congressional pork which is now "investment" and new taxes which are now called "revenues". Liberals have become "progressives". Global warming is now "climate change"--something that everyone knows we need to work to prevent. Bush's War on Terror has morphed into the "Overseas Contingency Operation". Illegal aliens are now "undocumented" something-or-others.

Think of the wrench this new name would throw into the terrorist recruiters' game plans. It used to be all that the recruiter had to say was, "Hey, Abdullah, do you want to blow up some Americans? They are evil: they pour water up our Muslim brothers' noses. They play loud music to keep them up late at night and lock them in boxes with caterpillars. It all happens at Gitmo. Let's blow up some Americans and they will close Gitmo and our Muslim brothers will stop being tortured." The Abdullahs of the world evidently have been jumping all over that.

But if Guantanamo were re-named Tuantanamo, when the terrorist recruiters mention these abominations, the Abdullahs of the world will reply, "Get out of here: there is no Gitmo any more. There's been change in Washington. Gitmo has been closed."

Replies the recruiter, "Don't believe those American dogs! Titmo is the same thing as Gitmo, they just changed the name! Don't you see? They're still the same Muslim-torturing, Kuran-debasing, Bush-Cheney respecting, Infidels that they've always been."

"Go find some other sucker, Mr. Terrorist Recruiter, the Americans are nice now. There has been Change. I feel the Change and I feel better. I'm down with the new administration."

If we re-named it we wouldn't have to move anyone anywhere. We wouldn't have to spend $80 million to tear down the facility that cost $200 million to build.

And besides, Titmo sounds much nicer than Gitmo. It's softer, warmer. It makes you want to hug it, snuggle it, cuddle and nuzzle it. Who would ever have a problem with spending time in Titmo?

hilarious

2009-05-25T12:35:00.002-04:00

George came back from college and turned me into a hockey fan. Tho, probably not this bad. Yet. . . .

Amateurs

2009-05-25T00:34:00.001-04:00

Did he or didn't he? That is the question.

Maryland Conservatarian: Robert Gibbs Refines Barack Obama's Resume

Hummer's for sale

2009-05-11T21:21:00.009-04:00

I don't mean "hummers for sale"--evidently that's what Craig's list is for. Hummer's for sale--with an apostrophe. The whole division of GM. For a cool $200 million it could be yours.

That's just two times what we've reportedly pledged to help rebuild Gaza. That's one thirtieth of what GM lost in the first three months of this year alone. Don't think $200 mil. will solve the prob, GM.

Maybe Tata Motors (ticker symbol TTM) will buy Hummer. Wouldn't that be cool to build both the Nano and the Hummer?

What are the chances that more good money will be thrown after bad to preserve those UAW jobs, UAW campaign contributions, UAW Democratic votes?

Mujahideen ate the zoo animals

2009-05-07T08:41:00.003-04:00

The headline here reads that the Afghanis quarantined a pig bc. of the swine flu panic. But read on, McDuff. The most interesting part of the article: they ate the bunnies in the zoo! One dastardly Muslim fighter grenaded a poor defenseless lion leaving him (the lion that is) blind and toothless.

Mujahideen fighters then ate the deer and rabbits and shot dead the zoo's sole elephant. Shells shattered the aquarium.
One fighter climbed into the lion enclosure but was immediately killed by Marjan, the zoo's most famous inhabitant. The man's brother returned the next day and lobbed a hand grenade at the lion leaving him toothless and blind.

Savages. (Tho, I would like to think that one of my brothers would grenade any zoo animal that ate me.)

I got the picture here where there is also a good definition of Mujahideen.

An Apple a Year

2009-04-23T00:32:00.007-04:00

How would you like a diet that only required you to eat one less apple per year?

At his cabinet meeting the other day, Barry O'B made a grand production out of asking his bureau chiefs to find a way to cut $100 million with an "m" in wasteful government spending. Thought at the time that surely he meant $100 billion with a "b", but it slipped from my mind.

Today's lead editorial in IBD shocked me back to life. Remember, this guy sent a budget to Congress that totals $3.6 trillion with a "t". That's a proposed budget for one year.

Here's a blurb from IBD:

To get a real sense of just how little is being asked of his Cabinet, consider:
• If Obama were your dietician, you'd only have to give up an apple a year to abide by his diet plan.

• If he wanted you to cut your gasoline consumption, you'd have to drive just one-third of a mile less in a year.

• And if he wanted you to waste less water, you'd only have to reduce the time you spend in the shower on one day of the year by 30 seconds.

We forget how big a billion is, can't comprehend the size of a trillion. A hundred million is actually quite a lot of money to most of us. But it's really nothing on a relative scale.

There just isn't enough money to do what he and the Dems in Congress want to do. You could and take all we've got and that still wouldn't be enough.

Read the whole editorial here.

Raised Eye Brow

2009-04-16T10:10:00.003-04:00

My guess? No matter what the plastic surgeon says, to close a crater that big, my brow will look like this for the rest of my life.

It adds character.

Buy the poster here.

Barry O'B Bows to the King

2009-04-09T10:33:00.006-04:00

Ironic that as a nation we have had to bow to the Arabs economically since 1973 but only now does our President actually do it in person. GW was just as bad, by the way, when he kissed the King and held his hand.

We will continue bowing metaphorically until this country puts the bureaucrats, the Greenies, the NIMBYs, and the scaredy-cat hippies in their place and starts building more nuclear power plants. We'll be bowing until we start drilling in Alaska and off our own shores and until we embrace coal for electricity and natural gas for our truck fleet.

It's sad--sad that we're bowing and sad that this government can pass an emergency "stimulus" package in a matter of days, if not hours, but seems to be powerless to do anything effective to remove this Arab yoke from our neck.

Sad, too, that Barry O'B's spin doctors deny that he bowed. No, that's more pathetic than sad. We're back to arguing about what the meaning of "is" is.

[How PC of Wikipedia to change the name of the "Arab Oil Embargo" to the "1973 Oil Crisis".]

He Qualifies

2009-04-09T00:08:00.004-04:00

Wrote before about folks falling into one of two categories. Without a doubt, this guy is pretty much of a dick.

His interview on The Tyra Banks Show is on Youtube but it's not worth publishing the link.

Great Mardis Gras costume

2009-03-28T20:18:00.002-04:00

This cracks me up. Came in an email--a mystery Mardis Gras reveler.

Tho, it must be tough reveling with all those young uns.

Can you afford $48,000 more?

2009-03-26T23:56:00.003-04:00

IBD reports that Barry O'B's budget would put every American family $48,000 deeper in debt.

In the next five years alone, Obama's budget adds $5.7 trillion to the U.S. debt. That's $48,000 per household. Put in perspective, servicing that debt each year will cost as much as the annual defense budget by the end of the decade.

So we'll be spending as much on debt service as on defense? Ouch. (My prediction is that we'll be spending more bc. the Dems will cut defense as soon as they get the opportunity.)

It's beyond words. . . .

I swiped the picture from here.

DeSantis Quits

2009-03-26T07:17:00.005-04:00

Hey, somebody at AIG did quit. His resignation letter, published on the Op-Ed page of the New York Times, is a must read.

Just goes to prove there are two sides to every story. I wish Mr. DeSantis well and hope the demagogues get what they deserve.

What if they all quit?

2009-03-23T00:01:00.005-04:00

What happens if all the folks who got those bonuses at AIG just quit?

A small detail that hasn't been mentioned much--these were retention bonuses. In other words, in theory, they were offered to employees in order to keep them from fleeing the company. After all, these were folks who had been working for a big insurance company, not the government.

So what if they all decide not to come to work tomorrow? What would whoever's-in-charge do? Promote into executive positions junior AIG employees who didn't get bonuses? Hire people away from Travelers or State Farm? Hire people from government regulatory departments?

I mean, doesn't whoever's-in-charge there at AIG have an important job to do? Don't they need to pick up the pieces and put this thing back together--get rid of the the crap and make it a profitable company again?

Maybe they can tax bonuses 90% and still retain the best people who have stuck it out this long. Maybe.

My guess is not, tho. My guess is that they will hire (in a figurative sense) postal workers, DMV cashiers, OSHA inspectors, IRS & Social Security Administration help desk phone operators, and airport security wand-wavers. And if that's not who they hire to fill the vacancies, that's what the remaining employees will be turned into.

St Patrick's Day

2009-03-20T09:03:00.003-04:00

Green beer was had by all.

Ripples

2009-03-18T23:46:00.011-04:00

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
For want of the shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of the horse, the rider was lost;
For want of the rider, the battle was lost;
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Gotta love Mother Goose. Timeless. Here's a modern day version to ponder:

Blabber Mouth Barney and Congressional Cohorts attack some TARP-receiving corporation for having a corporate retreat at a fancy resort.
The Acme Widget Company board fears bad publicity, stockholder backlash, and Congressional subpoenas.
Said board cancels its Gold Legion Sales Award program in Las Vegas.
Vegas hotel vacancy rates skyrocket.
Vegas hotels lay off workers.
Laid off Vegas workers quit making house payments.
Banks foreclose on laid off Vegas workers.
Banks now own lots of Vegas real estate.
Banks have to take TARP funds.
Blabber Mouth Barney gets to tell banks what to do.

The winner? Blabber Mouth Barney gets his mug on TV, gets more votes, and gets more power to tell banks what they can and cannot do, what they can and cannot pay their employees, and--just around the corner, it's coming--who they have to lend to.

The losers? The taxpayers. The taxpayers' grandchildren. Everyone else in the chain.

Tidbits of Good News

2009-03-12T14:36:00.010-04:00

Good news in the news in the last couple days.

First, home sales are way up in the Land of Arnold. Twice as many California homes sold in Jan. '09 as did in Jan. '08. Of course, the median home price dropped 40% year-over-year. But isn't that good for the buyers?

What's even better is that the inventory of homes plummeted from a 16.6 month supply to a 6.7 month supply. A shorter supply may lead to price increases. Time will tell. Read the article here at IBD.

Of course real estate is local and just because prices may be nearing a bottom in La La Land doesn't mean it's necessarily a bottom for the rest of us. BUT, if the Left Coast is bottoming out, the rest of the country will follow and will probably end up hitting a bottom that's no worse than California's. The most recent Case Shiller Report puts L.A. at 37.5% off it's Nov. '05 all-time peak. That's Dec. '08 data. If this does end up being the bottom in L.A., look for the rest of the country to follow in the next year or so. Of course a bottom is one thing and a rebound is another.

The other bit of good news is that the Baltic Dry Index seems to have bottomed. This index tracks the cost of transporting dry goods such as coal, cement, ore, and grain by ship. The higher the index, the greater the demand for shipping. A Baltic Dry Index on the rise means that credit must be flowing and countries are trading. A good thing. Read about it here.

Triple Baconator

2009-03-11T21:29:00.001-04:00

Now this is truly painful to watch. But fun in an odd sort of way.

So Are French Fries

2009-03-08T11:28:00.006-04:00

The Sunday morning chat shows were full of powerful Dems this morning raving about Barry O’B’s approval ratings--NY Sen. Schumer, VA Gov. and DNC Chairman Kaine, Meet the Press host David Gregory. It’s true: the President is very popular. But ya know what?

So are french fries.

Just because something's popular doesn't mean it's good for you.

Don't get me wrong, it's good, it's refreshing to have a popular figure in the White House once again. But being popular doesn't create one new job or save one single "victim" of "predatory" lending. So while I would still say that the President is a pretty good guy, the debt that he and the Congress are running up and the energy, health care, and tax policies that he bandies about are, in the long run, about as helpful for our economy as french fries are for our arteries.

Ahh, but it makes for good politics.

How Low Could It Go?

2009-03-06T10:09:00.007-05:00

Fascinated by the similarities bet. the Dow crash of '29 and the Nasdaq crash of '00, I decided to look into it a little further. Here's the poop.

The Dow peaked in August, 1929. From there it fell 87%, bottoming in July 1932. "The entire gains of the Roaring Twenties boom and more were wiped out in just three years," writes Harry S. Dent, Jr (p. 274). Interestingly, by July 1933, just one year off the low, the Dow rallied 300%! From there it faded 50% to hit another low (tho not as low as 1932) in 1942. From this second low, it took 12 years to regain the 1929 high. So $10,000 invested in the Dow in August 1929 wouldn't be worth $10,000 again until November 1954, 25 years later.

The interesting thing, the thing that caught my eye, anyway, is that the Nasdaq fell by almost an identical amount, 84%, when that bubble popped in 2000. It peaked at 5132 on March 10, '00 and bottomed at 807 on March 3, '03. From that '03 low the Nasdaq rose 350% to 2810 in November 2007. Today it's trading around 1280, roughly 55% off the '07 high and 75% off the '00 high.

So the question is, if the Dow dropped 87% from it's '29 high and the Nasdaq dropped 84% from it's '00 high, will history repeat itself with this latest carnage? The Wilshire total market index hit it's high October 11, '07 at 15,819. If it drops 85% and takes three years to do it, as the markets did with these other two bubbles, it will bottom around 2375 sometime in the fall of 2010.

Today, the Wilshire sits at right around 6900. So if history repeats itself with an 85% drop off the '07 high, we are going to drop 65% more from where we are right now. In that case, $10,000 invested at the peak will be worth $1500 and $10,000 invested today will be worth $4500. Ouch. What's worse, the $10,000 invested in 2007 won't be worth $10,000 again until the year 2032.

So much for riding it out. So much for buy and hold.

A couple things. Heading into these bubbles, the Wilshire chart does not look as parabolic as the Dow (see chart above) and the Nasdaq charts do. So maybe the market will not crater as strongly as it did after '29 and '00.

Who knows? The major indexes are all off around 50% from their '07 highs. Maybe doubling the national debt, slashing interest rates to zero, nationalizing Freddy and Fannie and AIG, and legalizing mortgage cram-downs will do the trick. Maybe not.

On the one hand, those who don't read history are doomed to repeat it--whether as an investor or as a legislator or chief executive.

On the other hand, history repeats itself until it doesn't. Maybe this will be different.

Click on the chart above to enlarge. I found it here along with a very good article by Eric Parnell at Seeking Alpha.

"Pump It!"

2009-03-02T09:02:00.004-05:00

Here we go--something on a more cheerful note. I probably watch this once a month or so and it cracks me up every time.

States' Troubles

2009-03-02T00:51:00.002-05:00

Man, oh, man, talk about doom and gloom. Read this. It's a depressingly downward spiral for the states.

Remind me to find something cheerful to post in the a.m.

New Word for Webster's

2009-02-28T14:06:00.009-05:00

Every year the good folks at Webster's pick new words to go in their dictionary. Surely this year they will pick as a new word "TheDeficitIInherited". It's a very popular word these days. Especially with our new Chief Executive. Has anyone else noticed this? Every time He says "deficit", He follows with "that I inherited".

It's smart. Blame it on Bush. After all, if it's a deficit that "I inherited", then it's not my fault. And, too,"TheDeficitIInherited" has surely been heavily focus-group-tested so it's surely a safe bet.

The question is, will Barry O'B get away with it? Who knows? FDR beat Herbert Hoover in one election and Hoover's ghost in three more even when unemployment was 16.9% in 1936 and 14.6% in 1940. And once again, anyone who can beat Billary is a force to be reckoned with.

Some would say, what's to get away with, He did inherit it? I would say, yes He inherited a mess. But

So often times it happens that we live our lives in chains/
And we never even know we have the key.

The chains are a debt so large it can't be paid back. Spending more will not free us from those chains. In fact, the key to unlocking those chains is to spend less.

For some, "TheDeficitIInherited" will always remain a problem that's not this President's fault because, for some, Barry O'B can do no wrong.

The question is when, or will, the rest of the folks realize the "TheDeficitIInherited" has morphed into "ADefictIMayBeResponsibleFor". Time will tell.

India's Model T

2009-02-23T10:21:00.003-05:00

Tata Motors' 33 horsepower Nano hits the road in April. Billed as the world's most economical car, the Nano will cost only $2,500. For that, there are no airbags, no Ipod docks, no shoulder belts in the back seat, no passenger-side mirrors. Hand crank windows, plastic bumpers, glued-together seams in places that on other cars are welded.

But, it's safer than a scooter. It'll get you to work on Monday and across town on Sunday to visit Grandma. And it's green, boasting a 50 mpg rating.

No wait a minute, the Greenies are complaining. In fact, "having nightmares". This means more cars on the road. So many that the Nanos will counteract any improvements made by industrial nations to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Too bad for the Greenies. A billion-with-a-"b" members in the new middle classes of India and China will likely not be denied the freedom and economic opportuny afforded car owners. After all:

Rich Westerners, says Tata Motors boss Ravi Kant, “ask about congestion and pollution and global warming. I ask them, ‘Sir, will you stop using your car and take the bus?’”

The Obameter

2009-02-18T15:18:00.004-05:00

At PolitiFact.com one can track Barry O'B's campaign promises on the Obameter. Courtesy of the St. Pete Times.

Right now they claim he's kept 11 promises, broken two, compromised on three, and has 20 in the works. He's yet to take action on 474. (And here I thought Bill Clinton would go down in history at the great promiser-in-chief with those never-ending laundry lists of promised pork in his State of the Union speeches). The Obameter needs to be updated bc. that behemoth pork package that Barry signed this morn reportedly "fulfills or makes progress" on 50 more promises.

It'll be fun to watch how this goes. Grab your wallets.

Go here to buy the poster.

The Audacity of Soap

2009-02-17T09:51:00.002-05:00

"This is our moment. . . to clean up America."

The American Spirit survives. Buy some silly soap and support wounded veterans and thier families through the Yellow Ribbon Fund.

Count me in . . .

2009-02-14T10:26:00.004-05:00

With this 44%:

Forty-four percent (44%) voters also think a group of people selected at random from the phone book would do a better job addressing the nation’s problems than the current Congress.

That, according to Rasmussen. Only 37% disagreed.

Put another way, only 37% of voters agreed that these Bozos are doing a better job than would folks picked randomly from the phone book.

Very amusing. Someone at Rasmussen has a good sense of humor.

Scared People Don't Buy

2009-02-12T22:57:00.005-05:00

Back from a couple days with one of those "intestinal" things. . . .

Not generally a fan of Donny Deutsch--one of those pretty-boy, New York, Frank Gifford-types--but he sure did hit it on the head today in an appearance on CNBC.

The talking heads were arguing about whether the "stimulus" package will stimulate and bring us out of this mess. Argues Donny, "Scared people don't buy cars. Scared people don't buy houses. People are scared." Those are pretty close to the exact words. I would add that scared people don't even go to the mall, let alone buy anything there. They don't go to Disney or buy lattes at Starbucks. They wait an extra week or two before getting a haircut and, unfotunately, may not be as charitable.

And there's no doubt, folks are scared these days.

I agree with Donny that the government can posture and primp and spend all they want, but until Joe Sixpack has stopped being scared, he's never going to buy a new truck.

So my prediction? This "stimulus" bill will have no effect. (Did Pres. Bush's package last spring bring us out if this?)

Prob. is that this "stimulus" bill is only $790 bil. in a GDP that in 2008 was $14.58 tril. Of course GDP won't be that high this year. Even so, the most of the money in this bill will not be spent this year either.

Think of it this way. $790 bil/$14.58 tril=5.4%. What's happening is Congress is borrowing 5.4% of what we all produced last year in order to give it back to us. So we're all going to get, collectively, a 5.4% "raise".

If you got a 5.4% raise starting tomorrow (and remember, it would really only be a 2-3% raise in '09 bc of the back-loaded nature of the package), what would you do with it--assuming that Donny is right and the you are as scared as the rest of us are these days? Buy a new GM car? Eat out a couple extra nights each month at Ruth's Chris? Or save it, pay down debt, or chuck it into the 529?

There's no way that even those Bozos on Capitol Hill can make up for a consumer frozen by fear. We got burned when the dot.com bubble burst. Then the real estate bubble burst. Then the banking system collapsed.

Spending a bunch of money and calling it "stimulus" may get you re-elected in some parts of the country, but it's not going to get us to buy new cars again. Or RVs made in Elkhart, Indiana.

GE Footnote

2009-02-10T09:14:00.004-05:00

Someone must have been reading me: GE was up 14% yesterday. I take full credit.

Some Change

2009-02-10T00:17:00.003-05:00

Looks like Pres. Obama won't be "changing" much with regards to Iran. That's a good thing. And a compliment to his predecessor. This from Stratfor about Biden's speech at the Munich Security Conference:

The Obama administration’s position, as staked out by Biden, is that the United States is prepared to speak directly to Iran provided that the Iranians do two things. First, Tehran must end its nuclear weapons program. Second, Tehran must stop supporting terrorists, by which Biden meant Hamas and Hezbollah. Once the Iranians do that, the Americans will talk to them. The Bush administration was equally prepared to talk to Iran given those preconditions. The Iranians make the point that such concessions come after talks, not before, and that the United States must change its attitude toward Iran before there can be talks, something Iranian Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani emphasized after the meeting. Apart from the emphasis on a willingness to talk, the terms Biden laid out for such talks are identical to the terms under the Bush administration.

The question is: what will Tehran do? They have "elections" coming up soon.